The 2026 midterms: what's at stake on November 3

Key facts · Part 1 Essentials

• Senate: Republicans hold fifty-three seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four, which means fifty-one
• House: two hundred eighteen is the majority line
• Redistricting: Texas drew, California answered, so polls and seats may not line up
• Poll closing times: seven to eight Eastern gives the first Senate signals, and California closes at eleven
• The mirage: ahead is not winning, so ask what votes are still out
• Calls versus certification: the Associated Press calls races, but a call is not certification

Key facts · Part 2 Deeper

• Governors: thirty-six races, Georgia and Ohio rated toss-ups by Decision Desk HQ, and governors certify results and can veto maps
• Special elections: Florida and Ohio each have a Senate special
• Georgia runoff: fifty percent needed, otherwise a runoff about four weeks later, so control could stay unsettled
• North Carolina is an open seat, and Cook moved it toward Democrats on October sixth
• Maine's Collins is a name to watch, and exit polls deserve caution
• Watch for a wave in Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas, plus a possible split Congress and slow counts in California, Arizona, Alaska, and Nevada

Key facts · Part 3 Drill

• Senate: Republicans hold fifty-three seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four, which means fifty-one
• House: two hundred eighteen is the majority line
• Redistricting: Texas drew, California answered, so polls and seats may not line up
• Poll closing times: seven to eight Eastern gives the first Senate signals, and California closes at eleven
• Ahead is not winning, and a call is not certification